![]() ![]() The vast majority of Senate elections held since 2012 – 192 of 211, counting both regular and special elections – have been won by candidates who belonged to or were aligned with the party that won that state’s most recent presidential race, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of results going back to 1980. The pattern of Senate votes tracking with presidential preference has its roots in the late 1980s, but it has become particularly pronounced over the past decade or so. Three senators elected as independents who caucus, or caucused, with Senate Democrats (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine and Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut) were counted as Democrats. The 2022 results were taken from The New York Times’ election tracker and The Washington Post.įor analytical purposes, special Senate elections were grouped with the closest midterm election. House Clerk’s office, for past years’ election results and compared the winning party in each Senate election with the outcome of the most recent presidential election in that state. ![]() We relied on the Federal Election Commission, supplemented by information from the U.S. All surveys are subject to multiple sources of error, including from sampling, question wording and order, and nonresponse.This is the second update to an analysis first published in June 2018 of the growing alignment between states’ presidential and senatorial votes. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. ![]() Participants in the probability-based portion of the survey were contacted by phone and mail, and had the opportunity to take the survey by phone or online. It combines interviews in English or Spanish with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files and self-identified registered voters selected from opt-in online panels. 6, concluding as polls close on Election Day. The survey of 4,709 voters and 579 nonvoters in Wisconsin was conducted Oct. About as many nonvoters were Democrats (27 percent) as Republicans (33 percent).ĪP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate in all 50 states conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press and Fox News. A wide share of those who did not vote _ 83 percent _ did not have a college degree. In Wisconsin, 68 percent of registered voters who chose not to vote in the midterm election were younger than 45. Another 24 percent said it was somewhat important. Tuesday's elections will determine control of Congress in the final two years of Trump's first term in office, and 65 percent of Wisconsin voters said which party will hold control was very important as they considered their vote. By comparison, 22 percent said a reason for their vote was to express support for Trump, and 36 percent said they voted to express opposition to Trump.Ī majority of voters in Wisconsin had negative views of Trump: 55 percent said they disapprove of how he is handling his job as president, while 44 percent said they approve of Trump. Voters have a positive view of the nation's current economic outlook _ 68 percent said the nation's economy is good, compared with 32 percent who said it's not good.įor 41 percent of Wisconsin voters, President Donald Trump was not a factor they considered while casting their votes. Others considered immigration (19 percent), the economy (18 percent), the environment (8 percent) and gun policy (6 percent) to be the top issue. Health care was at the forefront of voters' minds: 35 percent named it as the most important issue facing the nation in this year's midterm elections. ![]()
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